There appear to be two major factions in the present
unrest in Egypt. The first factions appears to want to fashion itself after the
secular countries and parliaments of Europe. The others are the Islamists, such
as the Muslim Brotherhood, which is typical of Islamic parties which want to
win control of countries all over the Middle-east.
The military, which ousted President Mohamed Morsy which pleased the more secular
faction, has led to military rule. Egypt does not have the parliamentary traditions
of Europe and such a coup would not have been welcomed there. This shows that
the Egyptian military is still a major political power and with out replacing
it with a new “people’s army” then the people there are likely to just get
duped over and over again as the same power structure simply rearranges itself
to pacify the masses. That means the real power structure of the country hasn’t
changed but the majority of the people just haven’t caught on yet. This “Arab
Spring” removed one dictator, Hosni Mubarak, but not the structure and system
that relied on him. This revolution is at this time a farce. As with the false
revolutions in Libya and Syria, it is easy to mistake distaste for a dictator for
an actual revolution, when in fact it is nothing more than a reshuffling of the
same system, same army, and same police.
This may well be a good exercise for the people as
they may actually learn something from all of this. But it will probably take
many years and the process has not come together yet.
So at this time there are no clear winners in the Egyptian
struggle. There are a few Marxist parties, but their influence is not a major
factor at this time. There are just factional battles and the struggle for
democracy is miles away from becoming a reality.
-សតិវ អតុ
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