Will the Taliban fight; or will they join the process of reconciliation with the occupiers and the puppet regime?

From Shola Jawid, site of the Communist (Maoist) Party of Afghanistan:

Note: The following article [Will the Taliban fight; or will they join the process of reconciliation with the occupiers and the puppet regime?] was penned by comrade Zia and published in Sholajawid # 25, round 3, 2011, when the above question was first posed after the US imperialists announced its plan to withdraw by 2014 and the puppet regime increased its efforts to reconcile with the Taliban. Now that the US imperialists are set to complete their withdrawal before 11 September 2021 and have pinned all their hopes on the United Nations-led diplomatic efforts to establish peace between the puppet regime and the Taliban insurgency, this article is useful in understanding the situation as it is explaining the historical context of Taliban’s emergence and the nature of the movement.  

After twenty years of military engagement, the US has finally withdrawing all its combat forces from Afghanistan. However, a military withdrawal does not mean an end to American imperial engagement in Afghanistan. Both the US imperialists and their puppet regime in Kabul have called the withdrawal, “the start of a new chapter in their relationship.”

Now an UN-led conference is planned to take place in Istanbul, Turkey to seal an agreement between the two by reorganizing the regime in Kabul to include the Taliban. So far, due to the Taliban’s refusal to particpate, the Istanbul conference has been postponed twice. Taliban are unhappy with the US decision to break a term of the US and Taliban agreement, signed in February 2020, according to which, all the US forces should have been withdrawn from Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021.

In return for a US promise to withdraw by May 1, the Taliban has promised to cut ties with al Qaida, begin negotiations with the puppet regime to end the two decades-long conflict, and guarantees that Afghanistan would not be used as a place to target American interests. In September 2020 direct negotiations started between the puppet regime and the Taliban in Doha. These talks have only led to intensified military efforts on both sides. However, since the February agreement between the US and the Taliban, no occupying forces have died in Afghanistan; Taliban not only ceased attacking the US targets, but there are media report that the Taliban have even protected the US led imperialist occupying forces from other insurgents groups during this time.

However, the war has intensified between the Taliban and the puppet regime across the country. So far, years of the diplomatic efforts have produced little. Instead, it has intensified the viciousness of war between the Taliban and the puppet regime. With every progress in diplomacy, both sides have increased violence to gain the upper hand on the battlefield in order to turn it into gains at the negotiating table.

Even now that serious efforts are underway to persuade the Taliban to attend the Istanbul conference and seek a political settlement, war is raging across the country. Both sides are inflicting huge casualties, including thousands of civilians and tens of thousands of families are being displaced as a result.

In the Moscow conference, on March 18, 2021, the US, China, and Russia issued a joint statement, declaring their opposition to the return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, calling on the Taliban to end the war through negotiations. This shows a consensus between major powers who want the Taliban to enter a power-sharing arrangement with the regime in Kabul.

The US state department devised a political road map for peace which involves a transitional peace government that includes both sides. Although, the president of the puppet regime had initially opposed the idea of a transitional government, it seems the US has managed to bring him on board with their plan. The puppet regime, the US imperialists, and all its allies are emphasizing that the Taliban has no justification for continuing its war after the US and its allies have withdrawn from Afghanistan.

The situation is uncertain. The US imperialists, its allies and regional powers are seeking to end the Taliban insurgency through diplomatic efforts, which so far, proven to be effective in intensifying the violence.

Sholajwid # 20, round 4, (April 2019) stated:

[T]his is a proven historical truth in all wars, that the victory and defeat of different sides of the war are decided on the battlefield and not on the negotiating table…Therefore, first, the victor of the current war in Afghanistan must be determined on the battlefield. Then, this victory in war must be confirmed at the negotiating table where one side surrenders or is smashed by the victorious side, and peace is achieved.

So far, the war in Afghanistan does not have a clear victor. The loss of the US aerial support for the puppet regime would benefit the Taliban on the battlefield. The US and NATO withdrawal emboldens the Taliban to push ahead with war until a total victory. The US imperialists have pledged to continue to provide financial and military support to its puppet regime in Kabul. The regime is showing boldface and asserting that they would sustain dominance in the war. However, now their principal strategy is to persuade the Taliban to end their war through negotiation and enter a power-sharing arrangement with the puppet regime.

Although, this piece written ten years ago, its analysis remain relevant to understand the current situation.

Sholajawid, 10 May 2021

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